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Ryan Greenblatt predicts 35–40% chance of AI takeover by 2040

Dwarkesh Patel Podcast · Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research? · August 11, 2026
Ryan Greenblatt predicts 35–40% chance of AI takeover by 2040
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast
Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?
"By 2040 um let's see uh maybe around 35 or 40%."
Ryan Greenblatt predicts the odds of what he would classify as an AI “takeover” by 2040 at about 35–40%. He adds that the most likely route could be messy and unlike any single scenario discussed. Greenblatt says the core risk is humans losing understanding and control as AI systems scale.
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Dwarkesh Patel Podcast
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast

Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?

August 11, 2026 · 2h 12m · 5 Egleze moments
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