Greenblatt says automated AI research could compress “four or five years” of progress into one

What was said

"Maybe my sort of median expectation is something like uh four or five years of AI progress in a single year."

Greenblatt argues that once AI systems can match top human AI researchers, they could drive a feedback loop of faster model improvement. He says his median expectation is that this could amount to “four or five years” of progress happening within one year, assuming diminishing returns are overcome.