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Ryan Greenblatt predicts automated R&D by 2030–2031, human-level job median 2033

Dwarkesh Patel Podcast · Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research? · August 11, 2026
Ryan Greenblatt predicts automated R&D by 2030–2031, human-level job median 2033
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast
Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?
"“Yeah, I would say that I expect full automation of R&D perhaps somewhere around 2031, 2030, and then getting to the beats all humans on the job milestone, maybe I expect median around 2033.”"
Ryan Greenblatt predicts AI will fully automate R&D around 2030–2031. He also says his median expectation for a system that ‘beats all humans on the job’ is around 2033.
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Dwarkesh Patel Podcast
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast

Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?

August 11, 2026 · 2h 12m · 5 Egleze moments
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