Iran Expected to Announce Withdrawal from MOU Within 24 Hours After Trump Blockade
"Everybody was involved. Even the Saudis were involved to make this happen. Can you imagine that among the backchannel messages, the Saudis were backchanneling the White House saying, look, this has to work. We cannot afford return of the war because all of us GCC, we're going to pay a very heavy price. And that's about to happen."
About this episode
Egleze editor Mario hosts geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar for an emergency discussion on the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Middle East following the collapse of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding. Escobar reports that Iran is expected to formally withdraw from the ceasefire agreement within 24 hours after President Trump reimposed a naval blockade on Iran and announced a 20% toll on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The unilateral move, made without consulting regional US allies, has destroyed nearly two months of intensive mediation led by Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar. Escobar reveals that even Saudi Arabia had been privately urging Washington to preserve the deal, warning that renewed conflict would devastate all Gulf Cooperation Council states. The interview was interrupted by breaking news that Yemen's Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport, hours after a Saudi-backed government bombed Sana'a Airport to prevent an Iranian plane carrying a Yemeni delegation from landing. The Iranian aircraft successfully diverted to Hodeida, marking the first Iranian civilian flight to land in Yemen in over a decade. Escobar warns that Ansar Allah leaders are now threatening to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which combined with Iranian control of Hormuz would create a naval triangle isolating Saudi Arabia and potentially driving oil prices to $200 per barrel. On the question of assassination threats against Trump, Escobar confirms that revenge has become official Iranian state policy under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with 40 million mourners in Iran and Iraq demanding retaliation for his father's killing. He notes the new leader's office has framed revenge as a religious duty, though he emphasizes Tehran will maintain plausible deniability and views retribution on a multi-decade timescale consistent with Persian strategic culture. Escobar is deeply critical of US decision-making, arguing Washington fundamentally misunderstands its adversary and lacks any coherent strategy, citing the contrast between Iran's 47 years of studying American behavior and the Trump administration's inability to grasp Iranian civilization-state logic. He frames the crisis as part of a broader 21st-century trend: the expulsion of the United States from Eurasia by Russia, China, and Iran. The episode concludes with oil prices spiking from $72 to $75 per barrel as news of the Houthi strikes breaks.
Key takeaways
- Iran is expected to formally withdraw from the Memorandum of Understanding with the United States within 24 hours following Trump's reimposition of a naval blockade and 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz shipping.
- Yemen's Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport after a Saudi-backed government bombed Sana'a Airport to block an Iranian plane from landing.
- Houthi leaders are threatening to blockade the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which combined with Iranian control of Hormuz could isolate Saudi Arabia and drive oil to $200 per barrel.
- New Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has adopted revenge as official state policy following his father's assassination, with his office framing retaliation as a religious duty.
- Saudi Arabia had been privately urging Washington via backchannel communications to preserve the ceasefire deal, warning that renewed war would devastate all Gulf Cooperation Council states.
- The Trump administration made the blockade decision without consulting regional US allies, according to Axios reporting cited by Escobar.
- Oil prices spiked from $68 to $75 per barrel within days as the security situation deteriorated and news of Houthi strikes broke during the interview.