Dale warns 10-year US Treasury “fair value” could be 5.8%

Dale says 42 Macro’s framework implies a “fair value” of 5.8% for the US 10-year yield if term premia normalise. He argues current term premium around 78bp sits well below a pre-GFC long-run mean near 1.88%, and says restoring that gap could push the 10-year “somewhere close to 6%” and the 30-year “well north of 6%”.