Darius Dale says US neutral real rate now sits above Fed policy

What was said

""our model of ourstar has it up by about, you know, let's call it two, you know, 50 to 75 basis points over the past, you know, kind of 3 to four months. And so now we are in a situation where ourstar is narrowly above the Fed funds rate.""

Darius Dale says his firm’s estimate of the US real neutral rate (r-star) has risen by about 50–75 basis points over the past three to four months. He puts r-star at 1.47%–1.78% versus an effective real Fed funds rate of 1.21%, arguing this makes Treasuries less attractive at the margin.