42 Macro founder Darius Dale sets out a framework for current US macro policy and market positioning, arguing the US has been in a “paradigm C” regime since April 2025 — policymakers choosing to “run the economy hot” — alongside what he describes as a Treasury-market supply/demand imbalance that has persisted since 2023. Dale says this combination supports “risk-on reflation” conditions that can lift equities, gold, bitcoin and commodities while remaining challenging for the dollar and long-duration bonds.
He provides specific estimates for the real neutral rate, saying his model puts US r-star in a 1.47%–1.78% band versus an effective real Fed funds rate around 1.21%, which he argues implies the Fed is not fully aligned with the neutral setting and that incremental capital may avoid Treasuries. Dale also sketches a scenario in which term premia normalise, putting the “fair value” 10-year yield at 5.8% and potentially pushing the 30-year yield above 6%.
On Fed communications, Dale argues that reducing or removing forward guidance could narrow the distribution of economic outcomes by reducing capital misallocation driven by policy signalling. He further claims Kevin Warsh was chosen as Fed chair as a “credible dove in hawk’s clothing” to maintain market confidence in the dollar and the Treasury market.
The episode closes with Dale describing systematic portfolio construction principles and risk-management overlays used at 42 Macro, including volatility targeting and position sizing, while the host presses on what “success” and “failure” would look like for the debt-heavy US policy mix.
Dale says 42 Macro’s framework implies a “fair value” of 5.8% for the US 10-year yield if term premia normalise. He argues current term premium around 78bp sits well below a pre-GFC long-run mean near 1.88%, and says restoring that gap could push the 10-year “somewhere close to 6%” and the 30-year “well north of 6%”.
Read this moment →Darius Dale argues the choice of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair was meant to reassure bond and currency markets rather than signal a lasting hawkish shift. He says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that lower rates depend on a stable US dollar and avoiding a politicised Fed appointment.
Read this moment →Darius Dale says his firm’s estimate of the US real neutral rate (r-star) has risen by about 50–75 basis points over the past three to four months. He puts r-star at 1.47%–1.78% versus an effective real Fed funds rate of 1.21%, arguing this makes Treasuries less attractive at the margin.
Read this moment →