Data Contradicts Trump Claims on Strait Oil Flows, Shows Half Reported Volume
"Kpler estimates approximately 5 million barrels of oil are exiting the strait daily on average in June. This is half of the US official's 10 million barrels per day claim, and just one quarter of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that transited the strait before the war."
About this episode
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson joins host Mario Nawfal for their daily geopolitical briefing on July 4th, delivering revelations about intelligence operations and challenging official US narratives on Iran negotiations. Johnson disclosed that his friend Joe, who died yesterday at 82, served as the holder of all Special Access Programs at the Department of Defense and briefed presidents on the nation's most classified programs. The discussion centered on escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran forcibly closed the US-Omani maritime corridor despite American air presence, forcing commercial vessels to use Iranian-controlled waters. Maritime tracking data from Kpler contradicts Trump administration claims about restored oil flows, showing only 5 million barrels per day exiting the strait compared to official claims of 10 million and pre-war levels of 20 million. Johnson and Nawfal analyzed reports that Iranian security officials blocked Muqtada Khamenei from attending his father's July 9th funeral over assassination fears, with both Iranian and Pakistani intelligence confirming legitimate threats from Israel. The conversation addressed Trump's upcoming meeting with Netanyahu, with Trump telling Axios that Netanyahu 'knows who the boss is' while Trump advisors reportedly believe Netanyahu 'was wrong about everything.' Johnson predicted Trump will reject Netanyahu's push to continue the war but expressed skepticism about the MOU's survival, stating Iran must correct blatant US violations. The episode concluded with sharp criticism of Florida Congressman Randy Fine's inflammatory statements denying Palestinian identity and calling for children to 'starve away,' with Johnson calling him racist and noting Palestinians have inhabited the region since 70 AD. Johnson expects Russia to capture the Donbas by December 2025 and doubts Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will secure a meeting with Putin despite reports of a planned Russia visit.
Key takeaways
- Iran forcibly closed the US-Omani maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz on July 4th despite constant American air presence, forcing vessels into Iranian-controlled waters
- Maritime data shows only 5 million barrels per day exiting the Strait of Hormuz, half of Trump administration's 10 million barrel claim and one-quarter of pre-war flows
- Iranian security officials blocked Muqtada Khamenei from attending his father's July 9th funeral over credible Israeli assassination threats confirmed by Iranian and Pakistani intelligence
- Trump told Axios that Netanyahu requested a White House meeting next week and 'knows who the boss is' while Trump advisors believe Netanyahu 'was wrong about everything'
- Former DOD Inspector General staffer who held all Special Access Programs and briefed presidents on top secret programs died at 82 yesterday
- Larry Johnson predicts Russia will capture the Donbas by December 2025 and doubts the Iran MOU will survive given blatant US violations
- Florida Congressman Randy Fine faced criticism for saying Palestinian children should 'starve away' and denying Palestinian identity despite historical evidence dating to 5th century BCE