Geopolitics
Montefiore says much of the 1948 Palestinian exodus happened before Israel’s declaration
Triggernometry
True History of the Middle East with Simon Sebag Montefiore
"At this stage, no one is being driven out. No one is being driven out. But hundreds of thousands and it's estimated I think something like 300,000 which is half the entire refugee number um of the Nakba is happening now out of fear um of the the coming war or the fact or what the Jews would do when they got control. But they are not being driven out."
Montefiore argues that a large portion of Palestinians who became refugees in 1947–48 left before Israel declared independence and prior to Israeli offensives, saying departures were driven by fear and anticipation of a wider Arab–Israeli war. He cites memoir accounts and points to Mahmoud Abbas’s recollection of leaving Safed as a child as an example.
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Triggernometry