Crime & Justice

Bustamante predicts second half of 2026 will be ‘far more dangerous’ for shootings

Name: Bustamante predicts second half of 2026 will be ‘far more dangerous’ for shootings
Uploaded: 2026-07-29T13:15:00+00:00
Description: Bustamante says “data” show public shootings occur more often in the second half of the year, which he attributes to seasonal public activity and to mental-health and social patterns he describes as peaking in summer and translating into planning over winter. On that basis, he makes a time-specific forecast that the latter half of 2026 will bring heightened risk compared with the first half.

Everyday Spy · Run Hide Fight Doesn't Work — A CIA Officer Explains What Does · July 29, 2026

Everyday Spy

Run Hide Fight Doesn't Work — A CIA Officer Explains What Does

"research shows that things like depression and loneliness peak in the same months as public exposure peaks. And the very same people who are feeling lonely and depressed in those summer months spends the winter months planning and premeditating acts of violence. So what that means for you and me is that the next 6 months of 2026 are going to be far more dangerous than the first 6 months of 2026."

Bustamante says “data” show public shootings occur more often in the second half of the year, which he attributes to seasonal public activity and to mental-health and social patterns he describes as peaking in summer and translating into planning over winter. On that basis, he makes a time-specific forecast that the latter half of 2026 will bring heightened risk compared with the first half.

About this episode

Andrew Bustamante, a former CIA officer and host of Everyday Spy, argues that the standard active-shooter guidance “run, hide, fight” is ineffective and was adopted for political and communications reasons rather than being proven through testing. He claims public officials wanted a simple, memorable message that would reassure the public and keep people in public spaces, describing fear-driven avoidance as a potential economic risk. Bustamante also asserts that public shootings occur more often in the second half of the year and links this to seasonal public activity as well as social and mental-health cycles; he forecasts the latter half of 2026 will be “far more dangerous” than the first half, without citing specific studies or datasets.

He then proposes an alternative framework he says is taught to military, police and first responders: “cover, think, react”. In his telling, the first priority is moving to a position that blocks bullets or the attacker’s view, followed by pausing to assess the shooter’s location, weapons, exits and crowd movement, and then choosing an informed response (including staying put, moving to better cover, or exiting via a side route). He contends that running away typically exposes vulnerable areas, reduces situational awareness, and funnels people into crowds that create an easier target, while the “fight” stage is disadvantaged by surprise and superior firepower on the attacker’s side.

Key takeaways

Bustamante says “run, hide, fight” was selected for memorability and political reassurance, not validated safety outcomes.
He claims officials feared public avoidance of public spaces would harm economic activity.
He argues running away can increase vulnerability by turning backs, reducing awareness, and concentrating crowds.
He says “hide” is mis-sequenced in the slogan, pushing people to run past viable hiding places.
He presents “cover, think, react” as a better paradigm he says is used by police/military training.
He predicts the second half of 2026 will see higher shooting risk than the first half, based on asserted seasonal patterns.