Lark Davis
Episode overview

This Is Not A Coincidence [Bitcoin Holders Get Ready]

Lark Davis · 19m · 2 Egleze moments
This Is Not A Coincidence [Bitcoin Holders Get Ready]
Episode summary

In this cryptocurrency and markets analysis episode, the host examines potential signs of a Bitcoin market bottom amid widespread bearish sentiment predicting further declines to $40,000 by October. The most significant development is Bernstein's maintenance of an ambitious $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite the asset's 54% drawdown from its $125,000 peak, which the firm notes is considerably milder than the 75-90% declines typical of previous cycles. Bernstein reports that strategic buyers have accumulated approximately 175,000 Bitcoin for $14 billion, continuing purchases even as U.S. miners sell. The host presents multiple technical indicators suggesting a potential bottom, including weekly bullish RSI divergence, proximity to the 200-week moving average, and a potential bullish MACD crossover, while acknowledging the prevailing four-year cycle theory predicts significantly lower prices ahead. Bitcoin ETF inflows flipped positive to $200 million for the first time in an extended period. In traditional markets, SpaceX's addition to the NASDAQ 100 this week will force passive fund buying despite concerns about a dramatic supply increase from 5% float currently to 60% by November and 100% by mid-2026, creating potential downward pressure. The host notes historical average IPO drawdowns of 50-70% in year one. Solana ecosystem developments show impressive traction, with Solana apps generating $94 million in May revenue versus just $18.6 million for the chain itself, and Solana ranking second globally in combined DEX and CEX trading volume at $12.25 billion weekly, trailing only Binance. Technical analysis covers multiple altcoins including Jupiter, which shows potential breakout signals, and Cardano, which rallied 41% despite minimal blockchain activity. The host maintains open long positions on Bitcoin targeting $65,000, Solana targeting $97, and Jupiter.

Key points
Watch original episode More from Lark Davis

2 moments from this episode

Source-linked · editorially selected
01
Money

Bernstein retains ambitious 150K Bitcoin year-end target despite 54% drawdown

Investment firm Bernstein maintains its $150,000 Bitcoin price target for year-end 2025 despite the recent 54% decline from the $125,000 peak. The firm notes this drawdown is significantly milder than the 75-90% declines seen in previous bear market cycles. Bernstein's analysis suggests strategy buyers have accumulated approximately 175,000 Bitcoin for $14 billion in 2026, continuing purchases even as U.S. miners become sellers. This ambitious target challenges the widely-held four-year cycle theory that predicts Bitcoin should bottom around $40,000 in October.

Read this moment →
02
Money

SpaceX faces 60% float increase by year-end following NASDAQ 100 addition

SpaceX will join the NASDAQ 100 index this week, forcing passive index funds to purchase shares despite concerns about massive supply increases. The company currently has only 5% of shares floating publicly, but this will surge to 60% by November 2025 and 100% by mid-2026. Historical data shows average IPOs experience 50-70% drawdowns in year one, raising concerns about SpaceX's ability to maintain current price levels of $162-164 amid this supply flood. The analyst suggests waiting for prices between $50-70 before buying.

Read this moment →