Bernstein retains ambitious 150K Bitcoin year-end target despite 54% drawdown
"Bernstein says Bitcoin's 54% draw down from its $125,000 peak is far milder than previous cycles 75 to 90% declines. The analyst note strategy has bought around 175 BTC 175,000 Bitcoin for $14 billion in 2026, continuing to buy as US miners turn into sellers. Bernstein also retains $150,000 year end target, now calling it ambitious after the drop."
About this episode
In this cryptocurrency and markets analysis episode, the host examines potential signs of a Bitcoin market bottom amid widespread bearish sentiment predicting further declines to $40,000 by October. The most significant development is Bernstein's maintenance of an ambitious $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite the asset's 54% drawdown from its $125,000 peak, which the firm notes is considerably milder than the 75-90% declines typical of previous cycles. Bernstein reports that strategic buyers have accumulated approximately 175,000 Bitcoin for $14 billion, continuing purchases even as U.S. miners sell. The host presents multiple technical indicators suggesting a potential bottom, including weekly bullish RSI divergence, proximity to the 200-week moving average, and a potential bullish MACD crossover, while acknowledging the prevailing four-year cycle theory predicts significantly lower prices ahead. Bitcoin ETF inflows flipped positive to $200 million for the first time in an extended period. In traditional markets, SpaceX's addition to the NASDAQ 100 this week will force passive fund buying despite concerns about a dramatic supply increase from 5% float currently to 60% by November and 100% by mid-2026, creating potential downward pressure. The host notes historical average IPO drawdowns of 50-70% in year one. Solana ecosystem developments show impressive traction, with Solana apps generating $94 million in May revenue versus just $18.6 million for the chain itself, and Solana ranking second globally in combined DEX and CEX trading volume at $12.25 billion weekly, trailing only Binance. Technical analysis covers multiple altcoins including Jupiter, which shows potential breakout signals, and Cardano, which rallied 41% despite minimal blockchain activity. The host maintains open long positions on Bitcoin targeting $65,000, Solana targeting $97, and Jupiter.
Key takeaways
- Bernstein maintains $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite 54% drawdown, noting current decline is milder than typical 75-90% bear market drops and strategy buyers accumulated 175,000 BTC for $14 billion
- SpaceX joins NASDAQ 100 this week forcing passive buying but faces supply surge from 5% float currently to 60% by November and 100% by mid-2026, raising concerns given average IPO 50-70% year-one drawdowns
- Multiple technical indicators suggest potential Bitcoin bottom including weekly bullish RSI divergence, 200-week moving average support at $63K, and potential bullish MACD crossover contradicting four-year cycle $40K October prediction
- Solana ecosystem demonstrates strong fundamentals with apps generating $94 million May revenue versus chain's $18.6 million and Solana ranking second globally in trading volume at $12.25 billion weekly behind only Binance
- Bitcoin ETF inflows flipped positive to $200 million Thursday for first time in extended period, potentially signaling sentiment shift amid continued institutional accumulation
- Altcoin sell pressure reached fresh multi-year lows according to one-year cumulative buy-sell volume data, suggesting capitulation may be largely complete and setting stage for rallies
- Host maintains open long positions on Bitcoin targeting $65K at 50-day EMA, Solana targeting $97, and Jupiter targeting $0.27 amid developing technical breakout patterns