SpaceX faces 60% float increase by year-end following NASDAQ 100 addition
"SpaceX will be added to the NASDAQ 100, the QQQ ETF this week, which means that passive flows will start coming into the SpaceX stock. Now, I am still not buying SpaceX. So while the NASDAQ is being forced to buy this company with 5% float currently, the reality is is that there by November of this year 60% of the supply will be in the market. 60%. We're going from 5% to 60% by the end of the year."
About this episode
In this cryptocurrency and markets analysis episode, the host examines potential signs of a Bitcoin market bottom amid widespread bearish sentiment predicting further declines to $40,000 by October. The most significant development is Bernstein's maintenance of an ambitious $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite the asset's 54% drawdown from its $125,000 peak, which the firm notes is considerably milder than the 75-90% declines typical of previous cycles. Bernstein reports that strategic buyers have accumulated approximately 175,000 Bitcoin for $14 billion, continuing purchases even as U.S. miners sell. The host presents multiple technical indicators suggesting a potential bottom, including weekly bullish RSI divergence, proximity to the 200-week moving average, and a potential bullish MACD crossover, while acknowledging the prevailing four-year cycle theory predicts significantly lower prices ahead. Bitcoin ETF inflows flipped positive to $200 million for the first time in an extended period. In traditional markets, SpaceX's addition to the NASDAQ 100 this week will force passive fund buying despite concerns about a dramatic supply increase from 5% float currently to 60% by November and 100% by mid-2026, creating potential downward pressure. The host notes historical average IPO drawdowns of 50-70% in year one. Solana ecosystem developments show impressive traction, with Solana apps generating $94 million in May revenue versus just $18.6 million for the chain itself, and Solana ranking second globally in combined DEX and CEX trading volume at $12.25 billion weekly, trailing only Binance. Technical analysis covers multiple altcoins including Jupiter, which shows potential breakout signals, and Cardano, which rallied 41% despite minimal blockchain activity. The host maintains open long positions on Bitcoin targeting $65,000, Solana targeting $97, and Jupiter.
Key takeaways
- Bernstein maintains $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite 54% drawdown, noting current decline is milder than typical 75-90% bear market drops and strategy buyers accumulated 175,000 BTC for $14 billion
- SpaceX joins NASDAQ 100 this week forcing passive buying but faces supply surge from 5% float currently to 60% by November and 100% by mid-2026, raising concerns given average IPO 50-70% year-one drawdowns
- Multiple technical indicators suggest potential Bitcoin bottom including weekly bullish RSI divergence, 200-week moving average support at $63K, and potential bullish MACD crossover contradicting four-year cycle $40K October prediction
- Solana ecosystem demonstrates strong fundamentals with apps generating $94 million May revenue versus chain's $18.6 million and Solana ranking second globally in trading volume at $12.25 billion weekly behind only Binance
- Bitcoin ETF inflows flipped positive to $200 million Thursday for first time in extended period, potentially signaling sentiment shift amid continued institutional accumulation
- Altcoin sell pressure reached fresh multi-year lows according to one-year cumulative buy-sell volume data, suggesting capitulation may be largely complete and setting stage for rallies
- Host maintains open long positions on Bitcoin targeting $65K at 50-day EMA, Solana targeting $97, and Jupiter targeting $0.27 amid developing technical breakout patterns