Intelligence Predictor Shows One Standard Deviation Increase Over 10,000 Years
"We see very strong natural selection for this combination of genetic variants that predicts people's performance on IQ tests and also is highly correlated to the predictor that predicts the number of years of school or the household wealth of people, all crazy traits in the past because there was no wealth in the past, there was no school in the past. But if you look at the predictors today, there is a strong movement in a systematic direction, a large effect, about a standard deviation on the scale of modern variation."
About this episode
In this episode, host Dwarkesh Patel interviews Harvard geneticist David Reich about groundbreaking findings from ancient DNA research that fundamentally challenge prevailing theories of human evolution. Reich, whose lab has analyzed over 16,000 ancient genomes, reveals that natural selection has been far more active in recent human history than previously believed, with approximately 3,800 locations in the genome showing clear signs of directional selection over the last 18,000 years—more than 150 times what earlier studies detected. The most significant finding is that selection intensified dramatically during the Bronze Age (5,000-2,000 years ago) rather than during the initial agricultural transition, suggesting that high population densities and urban living created unprecedented evolutionary pressure. Reich presents evidence that genetic variants associated with modern intelligence test performance increased by approximately one standard deviation over 10,000 years, with selection peaking in the Bronze Age and virtually ceasing in the last 2,000 years. Immune and metabolic traits showed even stronger selection signals, while behavioral traits were harder to detect due to their polygenic nature. The conversation also explores Reich's controversial new theory that Neanderthals may represent culturally modern humans who became genetically archaic through heavy admixture with local populations during a Middle Stone Age expansion 300,000 years ago—a model that would explain puzzling discrepancies between whole-genome data and mitochondrial DNA. Reich discusses the paradox that farming developed independently across the world only after 12,000 years ago despite humans being genetically capable much earlier, attributing this to climate stability in the Holocene period. The episode concludes with Reich explaining methodological innovations that enabled these discoveries, including industrialized ancient DNA extraction and novel statistical techniques borrowed from medical genetics that can detect selection signals previously invisible to researchers.
Key takeaways
- Reich's analysis of 16,000 ancient genomes identified approximately 3,800 locations under selection over 18,000 years, more than 150 times previous estimates from studies analyzing only dozens of positions.
- Natural selection intensified dramatically during the Bronze Age 5,000-2,000 years ago rather than during initial farming transitions, especially for immune and metabolic traits.
- Genetic predictors of modern intelligence increased by one standard deviation over 10,000 years with selection peaking 4,000-2,000 years ago and virtually stopping in last 2,000 years.
- European hunter-gatherers from 10,000 years ago scored an estimated three standard deviations below modern Europeans on genetic intelligence predictors, a gap largely closed by population replacement rather than selection.
- Reich proposes Neanderthals may represent culturally modern humans who became genetically archaic through heavy admixture during Middle Stone Age expansion 300,000 years ago.
- No fixed genetic differences exist between modern humans and those from 50,000 years ago, suggesting behavioral modernity emerged through polygenic changes or cultural evolution rather than single mutations.
- Despite genetic capability existing 200,000-300,000 years ago, farming only developed after 12,000 years ago across multiple world regions, which Reich attributes to unprecedented Holocene climate stability.