Peter Hamby says Emerson poll shows Vance slump, tied with Rubio
"Shoot, almost last year, he was at 50% in the Republican horse race for 2028. JD Vance, today he's at 36. So he's tumbled like almost 20 points. And then Marco Rubio, you just mentioned, is up at 35."
About this episode
Brian Tyler Cohen speaks with Puck News chief national correspondent Peter Hamby about signs of vulnerability for JD Vance inside Republican politics and about Democratic preparations for the 2028 nominating calendar. Hamby cites an Emerson College national poll of Republicans that he says shows Vance falling sharply from roughly 50% support in August 2025 to the mid-30s, placing him in a near-tie with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Hamby attributes Vance’s slide to the administration’s unpopularity and argues Vance has made himself the most visible defender of Trump’s agenda, including foreign-policy disputes, while Rubio has kept a lower profile.
The pair then turn to internal Democratic Party decisions on which states will vote first in the 2028 primaries. Hamby says the DNC was ratifying a new calendar that would elevate South Carolina and Nevada into the first slots, with New Hampshire and Michigan also in the opening window, and that New Mexico and Virginia were being discussed for addition. He describes the intra-party debate as balancing Black political power in South Carolina, Latino and labour politics in Nevada, and Michigan’s mix of union, suburban, rural, and Arab/Muslim voters. Hamby also says some DNC members view Michigan as a place Democrats must confront, rather than avoid, Gaza-related divisions.
The episode closes with a lighter segment on Hamby’s reporting about Josh Shapiro courting LeBron James before a reported signing with Philadelphia, followed by subscription plugs for Puck content.
Key takeaways
- Peter Hamby says an Emerson College poll shows JD Vance down to 36% support for the 2028 GOP nomination, with Marco Rubio at 35%.
- Hamby argues Vance has become a prominent public defender of Trump, which he says can make him a “heat shield” for unpopular policies.
- Hamby says the DNC began ratifying a revised early-primary calendar, elevating South Carolina and Nevada into the first window with New Hampshire and Michigan.
- He adds that New Mexico and Virginia were being discussed for inclusion, potentially expanding the early window to six states.
- Hamby says Nevada’s labour politics and South Carolina’s Black-majority Democratic electorate are central to arguments over which state should go first.
- He says Michigan’s large Arab and Muslim population makes Gaza a significant intraparty issue candidates may have to address early.