Macgregor predicts oil at $150 ‘within weeks’ and $200 in months
"Well, the world economic situation is continuing to deteriorate very rapidly. I think we're going to be at $150 a barrel very shortly within the next few weeks, probably 200 in a couple of months or more."
About this episode
Retired US Army colonel Douglas Macgregor tells host Mario Nawfal that Donald Trump faces a credibility crisis in foreign policy and that Iran has little incentive to accept any ceasefire, which Macgregor says Tehran would view as a prelude to further US operations. Macgregor frames the conflict as existential for Iran and claims the underlying US aim has become the “total destruction of the Iranian state and its society”, arguing that this perception drives Iranian strategy.
He discusses strike patterns he says suggest a potential US ground operation against Iran’s Persian Gulf coast, while also describing Iran’s efforts to degrade regional early-warning and air-defence networks supporting Israel. Macgregor argues Iran sees Gulf states such as Kuwait and others as hostile “bases for attack” regardless of whether the presence is American or Israeli.
On the economic front, Macgregor predicts rapid deterioration in global conditions, forecasting oil at $150 per barrel within weeks and possibly $200 within months, and warns that higher energy and petrochemical-linked costs could deepen a downturn. He also claims US debt servicing would become untenable if the 10-year yield reaches 5%.
Macgregor alleges the US cannot exit the conflict because Israel “controls the White House and the Congress”, referring to an expected Netanyahu visit. Nawfal later cites a Bloomberg report that some Gulf officials favour escalation, including potential US ground troops and seizure of an Iranian oil export hub, as regional allies grow frustrated over mounting economic and security risks.
Key takeaways
- Macgregor says Iran has no incentive to sign or trust a ceasefire with the US after repeated reversals and alleged violations.
- He claims the war’s effective aim has become the “total destruction” of the Iranian state, making the conflict existential for Tehran.
- Macgregor argues strike patterns suggest preparations for possible US ground action along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast.
- He predicts oil could hit $150 a barrel within weeks and $200 within months if hostilities continue.
- Macgregor warns of wider recession/depression risk through energy-linked inputs such as fertiliser and industrial distillates.
- He alleges Israel ‘controls the White House and the Congress’, arguing this prevents Trump from ending the conflict.
- The host cites a Bloomberg report that some Gulf officials favour escalation, including deploying ground troops and possibly seizing an Iranian oil export hub.