Episode summary
Hosts Ryan Grim and his co-host analyze the aftermath of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and massive funeral in Tehran, which drew tens of thousands chanting death to America, contradicting US intelligence predictions that Iranians would welcome regime change. The episode's most significant revelation concerns an unreported Israeli attempt to assassinate Iran's lead negotiator Aragian Galibaf during recent Islamabad ceasefire talks. Grim details how US intelligence detected Israeli fighter jets scrambling to shoot down the Iranian delegation's plane, forcing American officials to warn allies and Iran, resulting in an emergency landing and an 8-hour nighttime drive through mountain passes to Tehran. The hosts discuss President Trump's admission to Axios that he considered killing all Iranian leaders gathered at Khamenei's funeral but decided against it because there would be no one left to negotiate with, revealing his approach to diplomacy. The episode examines how the war failed to achieve its stated objectives, with Hamas leadership still meeting with Iranian officials and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recovering to approximately 7 million barrels per day from near-zero levels, though still well below pre-war levels of 20-21 million. Grim notes the absence of Khamenei's successor Moshab Khamenei from the funeral sparked controversy, possibly due to significant wounds from the strike that killed multiple family members. The discussion contextualizes the death to America chants, explaining the phrase translates more accurately as down with America and comparing US outrage to American anger over Pearl Harbor, noting the Iranian strike killed civilians including schoolchildren unlike the purely military Japanese attack. The hosts examine the pragmatic US-Houthi deal that allowed attacks on Israel while protecting American ships, and Saudi Arabia's role in keeping the Houthis partially out of the conflict, as evidenced by renewed fighting in Yemen that killed 16 government troops.