Massive Iranian Funeral Contradicts US Intelligence Assessments of Regime Weakness
"We were told that the Iranians would just like the Iraqis would greet us with you know candies and flowers and would celebrate uh the our assassination of common. Instead, you have one of the largest uh gatherings of people like in the world and after one of the largest um slaughterings of Iranians in January right? Which is pro, right? Which is why we thought they were weak right? And it would be easy for the Kurds to come in and people would overthrow them. This is what it looks like now right?"
About this episode
Hosts Ryan Grim and his co-host analyze the aftermath of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and massive funeral in Tehran, which drew tens of thousands chanting death to America, contradicting US intelligence predictions that Iranians would welcome regime change. The episode's most significant revelation concerns an unreported Israeli attempt to assassinate Iran's lead negotiator Aragian Galibaf during recent Islamabad ceasefire talks. Grim details how US intelligence detected Israeli fighter jets scrambling to shoot down the Iranian delegation's plane, forcing American officials to warn allies and Iran, resulting in an emergency landing and an 8-hour nighttime drive through mountain passes to Tehran. The hosts discuss President Trump's admission to Axios that he considered killing all Iranian leaders gathered at Khamenei's funeral but decided against it because there would be no one left to negotiate with, revealing his approach to diplomacy. The episode examines how the war failed to achieve its stated objectives, with Hamas leadership still meeting with Iranian officials and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recovering to approximately 7 million barrels per day from near-zero levels, though still well below pre-war levels of 20-21 million. Grim notes the absence of Khamenei's successor Moshab Khamenei from the funeral sparked controversy, possibly due to significant wounds from the strike that killed multiple family members. The discussion contextualizes the death to America chants, explaining the phrase translates more accurately as down with America and comparing US outrage to American anger over Pearl Harbor, noting the Iranian strike killed civilians including schoolchildren unlike the purely military Japanese attack. The hosts examine the pragmatic US-Houthi deal that allowed attacks on Israel while protecting American ships, and Saudi Arabia's role in keeping the Houthis partially out of the conflict, as evidenced by renewed fighting in Yemen that killed 16 government troops.
Key takeaways
- US intelligence detected and leaked Israel's attempted assassination of Iran's lead negotiator during ceasefire talks, forcing an emergency landing and 8-hour escape drive to Tehran
- President Trump told Axios he considered killing all Iranian leaders at Khamenei's funeral but decided not to because there would be no one left to negotiate with
- Tens of thousands attended Khamenei's funeral chanting death to America, contradicting US predictions that Iranians would welcome regime change after 3,000 deaths in January crackdowns
- Oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz recovered to 7 million barrels per day from near-zero levels during conflict, still below pre-war 20-21 million barrels
- Hamas political leadership met with Iranian parliament speaker during funeral ceremonies, demonstrating continued operational capacity despite stated goal of eradicating the organization
- Khamenei's successor Moshab Khamenei was conspicuously absent from the funeral, possibly due to significant wounds from the strike that killed his grandson, wife, and other family members
- US cut pragmatic deal with Houthis allowing attacks on Israel while protecting American ships, with Saudi Arabia also working to keep Houthis partially out of broader conflict