Geopolitics

China's Submarine-Launched Missiles Grant Second-Strike Nuclear Capability Against United States

Name: China's Submarine-Launched Missiles Grant Second-Strike Nuclear Capability Against United States
Uploaded: 2026-07-13T15:34:00+00:00
Description: Mark Fitzpatrick, arms control expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, reveals that China's recent submarine-launched missile test across the Pacific demonstrates a critical strategic shift. The capability ensures China could retaliate with nuclear weapons even if the U.S. destroyed its land-based arsenal, fundamentally altering the nuclear balance between the superpowers.

The Trump Report · China’s Missile Test & Iran’s Bomb: Inside the New Nuclear Arms Race | Mark Fitzpatrick · July 13, 2026

The Trump Report

China’s Missile Test & Iran’s Bomb: Inside the New Nuclear Arms Race | Mark Fitzpatrick

"China's ability with submarine launched missiles gives it a a second strike capability if there were to be a nuclear exchange between the United States and China and United States probably has the ability to knock out most if not all of China's landbased missiles submarines are invisible usually and um of course they can travel anywhere and so China could hit back with uh nuclear weapons carried in in submarines. Uh that changes the equation."

Mark Fitzpatrick, arms control expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, reveals that China's recent submarine-launched missile test across the Pacific demonstrates a critical strategic shift. The capability ensures China could retaliate with nuclear weapons even if the U.S. destroyed its land-based arsenal, fundamentally altering the nuclear balance between the superpowers.

About this episode

Amy Kellogg of the Trump Report interviews Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and arms control expert, on escalating nuclear threats and collapsing diplomatic efforts across multiple global flashpoints. The discussion centers on three major crises: the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire following repeated violations and strikes on hundreds of Iranian targets, China's demonstration of second-strike nuclear capability through a submarine-launched missile test in the Pacific, and Russia's potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Fitzpatrick delivers a stark warning that Iran could develop nuclear weapons within a year, driven by recent attacks that have intensified its weapons ambitions despite degraded conventional capabilities. On China, he reveals that Beijing's submarine-launched missile capability fundamentally alters the nuclear balance by ensuring retaliation capacity even if land-based arsenals are destroyed, potentially triggering a three-way arms race. He places Russia's probability of nuclear weapon use above zero percent, noting Putin faces no institutional checks and may resort to tactical nukes if cornered in Ukraine. Fitzpatrick criticizes the Trump administration's June memorandum of understanding with Iran as ambiguous and overly concessionary, leaving the U.S. with minimal leverage for future negotiations. He warns that strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor risk environmental and health catastrophes, and notes Gulf States are losing trust in U.S. protection while seeking independent arrangements with Iran. Throughout, Fitzpatrick emphasizes the dangerous opacity of China's nuclear program, the inadequacy of experienced negotiators in current U.S. diplomacy, and the precarious state of Middle East stability as the balance of power shifts.

Key takeaways

Mark Fitzpatrick warns Iran could develop nuclear weapons within one year, with recent strikes intensifying its weapons ambitions despite conventional military degradation.
China's submarine-launched missile test demonstrates second-strike nuclear capability, fundamentally changing strategic balance and potentially triggering three-way arms race with U.S. and Russia.
Russia's probability of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine exceeds zero percent, with Putin facing no internal checks on such decisions as military losses mount.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has collapsed with repeated violations, leaving America with minimal negotiating leverage after June memorandum granted excessive concessions to Tehran.
Gulf States are losing confidence in U.S. protection and pursuing independent deals with Iran as regional balance of power shifts dramatically.
U.S. strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor risk catastrophic radiation release from cooling ponds containing highly radioactive fuel rods in unhardened facilities.
China's nuclear program opacity and lack of transparency, including minimal notification of missile launches, increases arms race risks despite arsenal remaining below U.S. levels.