Only Two Days of Global Oil Demand Passed Through Hormuz During Ceasefire
"200 million barrels they got through the Strait of Hormuz over the past three weeks of the MOU ceasefire. According to oil experts Alexander that is about two days of global demand. 60 million barrels of that 200 million was Iranian which was sanctioned. Trump lifted the sanctions. Trump has now put the sanctions back on."
About this episode
Alexander Mercouris and his co-host discuss the collapse of the three-week memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which has given way to resumed military strikes and counterstrikes. The MOU, which Mercouris previously described as similar to the Minsk agreements, broke down because the U.S. failed to honor its commitments beyond securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the analysis. During the ceasefire, only 200 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz—equivalent to two days of global demand—with 60 million barrels being Iranian oil that Trump temporarily de-sanctioned and has now re-sanctioned. Iran responded to what it perceived as American deception by resuming attacks on tankers, including a Saudi vessel, prompting the largest U.S. strikes on Iran since early April. Mercouris argues that Iran's hardline faction has been significantly strengthened by two factors: the massive public turnout for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's funeral, which demonstrated continued domestic support for the regime, and the vindication of warnings that any agreement with the Trump administration would prove worthless. The hosts predict the conflict is drifting toward all-out war that will eventually require ground troop deployment, with Mercouris noting that commentators like Mark Levin are already advocating for such action. The alternative scenario involves Iran keeping the Strait closed until U.S. strategic petroleum reserves are exhausted, forcing American withdrawal from the Persian Gulf—an outcome the U.S. cannot accept. While diplomatic pressure from China, India, Pakistan, and Gulf states continues, and moderate Iranian factions still favor negotiations, the political momentum appears to favor hardliners who believe holding out will deliver total victory once American oil reserves run dry.
Key takeaways
- The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed after only three weeks, compared to eight years for the Minsk agreements it was likened to, with both sides resuming military strikes.
- Only 200 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz during the three-week ceasefire, representing just two days of global oil demand and failing to resolve U.S. strategic reserve shortages.
- Mercouris argues Iran's hardline faction has been strengthened by massive turnout at Khamenei's funeral and vindication that the U.S. would not honor the MOU beyond reopening Hormuz.
- The conflict is predicted to drift toward all-out war requiring eventual U.S. ground troop deployment, with some American commentators already advocating for such operations.
- Iran's alternative strategy involves keeping Hormuz closed until U.S. oil reserves are depleted, forcing total American withdrawal from the Persian Gulf.
- New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei lacks his father's authority and did not attend the funeral due to reported injuries, creating uncertainty about Iran's internal decision-making.
- Diplomatic pressure from China, India, Pakistan, and Gulf states continues to push for restoration of the ceasefire, though Iranian hardliners now hold greater influence over policy.