Money
Coordinated Japan Intervention Only Path to Sustainable Yen Strength Says Trader
Forward Guidance
Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly
"Coordinated intervention has worked almost every time. If Bessent were to agree and they actually intervene and the Fed participates, I think then you have a much more durable top. Otherwise they keep smashing it and everyone wants to buy it when they smash it because it's not sustainable."
Donnelly explains that unilateral Japanese Ministry of Finance interventions in currency markets have historically failed to create lasting effects, comparing current dynamics to 2003-2005 when Japan couldn't sustainably move dollar-yen. He argues only coordinated intervention with the US Treasury would create a durable top in dollar-yen, as solo interventions face fundamental headwinds from rate differentials and BOJ policy constraints. Without coordination, the yen remains structurally weak despite intervention attempts.
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Forward Guidance