Pakistan and China Lead Islamabad Quartet Replacing US Security Umbrella
"Basically, moving out the US security umbrella and replacing it with a China security umbrella, but that's really led by the Islamabad Quartet and the Arab nations. That's why if you look at the memorandum of understanding, it says that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz along with the Arab nations decide on the future transit that it is an Arab nation decision, not a United States."
About this episode
Ben Meiselas analyzes the massive funeral procession for Ayatollah Khomeini, which drew tens of millions of Iranians and official delegations from over 28 countries including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, and Pakistan. Donald Trump told Axios he was stunned by the size of the crowds and Iranians crying for Khomeini, contradicting his expectation that the population hated their leader. Trump revealed he considered striking Iran's assembled leadership at the funeral but chose not to preserve nuclear negotiations. US officials now admit that many of Trump's closest advisers believe Netanyahu was completely wrong about Iran's internal dynamics and predicted collapse. Meiselas argues the assassination backfired, unifying Iranians and strengthening international support for the regime rather than weakening it. The episode examines how a new geopolitical coalition called the Islamabad Quartet comprising Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran is emerging with Chinese backing to replace the US security umbrella in the region. According to a memorandum of understanding, Iran and Arab nations now jointly control transit decisions through the Strait of Hormuz, excluding the United States. Meiselas criticizes neoconservatives like Mark Levin who suggested the funeral was a missed military opportunity, arguing such rhetoric promotes endless war. He recounts the 1988 Iran Air Flight 655 incident when a US battleship shot down an Iranian commercial airplane killing 290 people, for which the US never apologized, to provide historical context for Iranian grievances. The analysis emphasizes the gap between Western assumptions about Iranian regime weakness and the complex reality of significant domestic and regional support.
Key takeaways
- Donald Trump admitted to Axios he was shocked by massive Iranian funeral crowds and considered striking assembled leadership but chose not to preserve negotiations.
- US officials told Axios that Trump's closest advisers now believe Netanyahu was completely wrong about Iran strategy and regime vulnerability.
- Over 28 countries sent official delegations to Khomeini's funeral including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, and Pakistan, contradicting isolation strategy.
- The Islamabad Quartet comprising Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran is emerging with Chinese backing to replace US regional influence.
- A memorandum of understanding grants Iran and Arab nations joint control of Strait of Hormuz transit decisions, excluding the United States.
- Meiselas argues the Khomeini assassination unified Iranians rather than weakening the regime, making ground invasion unfeasible given population size and support.
- Iran used targeted Quranic verses for each foreign delegation at the funeral, confronting rivals and rallying allies with tailored scriptural diplomacy.