Geopolitics
China's economy showing recession signals with bond yields at record lows and collapsing demand
Mario Nawfal Interviews
SAUDIS CRASH OIL TO $70, PRE WAR PRICES HIT - w/ Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider
"China's government bond curve looks like a recession curve. It is massively bull steepening from an ultra-low level. You look at front-end interest rates in China are almost to record lows back where they were in December 2024. When everybody was running around panicking over tariffs. We're almost back to those same levels in the 10-year Chinese government bond, almost at a record low."
Snider presents evidence that China faces multiple simultaneous crises including banking collapse, intractable real estate bust, and sharp economic contraction reflected in near-record-low government bond yields. He suggests China may not need to refill strategic oil reserves because domestic demand has fallen off sharply, contradicting expectations that Chinese buying would support global oil prices. Recent May economic data showed terrible retail sales and consumer spending as households hold most wealth in deflating real estate.
From this episode
Mario Nawfal Interviews