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Bitcoin now offers only 2x outperformance versus Nasdaq over next decade

Lark Davis · Nobody Wants To Buy Crypto Right Now · July 4, 2026
Bitcoin now offers only 2x outperformance versus Nasdaq over next decade
Lark Davis
Lark Davis
Nobody Wants To Buy Crypto Right Now
"Bitcoin's base case, assuming the 30% compound annual growth rate thesis holds for another decade, gets you roughly 2x outperformance versus the Nasdaq over 10 years. It's good, But for that, you have to accept volatility that is 2.5 to 3 times more intense than the equity markets, 40 to 80% drawdowns that test every conviction that you think you have."
A prominent crypto analyst argues Bitcoin is no longer the asymmetric investment it was in 2020-2021, now projected to deliver only 2x Nasdaq returns over a decade while carrying 2.5-3x more volatility. He suggests altcoins and tech stocks may offer better risk-reward profiles as Bitcoin matures into a traditional asset class.
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Lark Davis
Lark Davis

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