Russia Aims to Take Southern Ukraine Cities and Create Landlocked Rump State
"Putin very recently made the comment that after we're done with Donbas we're going to also liberate Novorossiya which is the historical southern lands of what is today Ukraine. That means Nikolaev and Odessa as well and if the Russians succeed this is essentially going to make Ukraine a landlocked rump state."
About this episode
In this episode, host Lenn speaks with Glenn Diesen, a political analyst currently based in Russia, about escalating tensions across multiple conflict zones. The conversation centers on Iran's post-war position following its MOU agreement, US intelligence warnings about potential Russian provocations against Poland, and deteriorating conditions for Ukrainian forces. Diesen argues Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz despite US offers to unfreeze billions in frozen assets, noting that controlling the strait represents the main spoils of war for Iran and has been sold to the Iranian public as justification for the conflict. European nations have reportedly accepted that fees will be charged but are requesting standardized rates rather than differential pricing favoring Russia and China. On the Ukraine front, Diesen provides detailed analysis of Russian territorial advances, particularly around strategic cities in Donetsk, and discusses Putin's stated intention to take southern Ukrainian cities including Odessa and Nikolaev, which would render Ukraine landlocked. The Telegraph report on US warnings to Poland about possible Russian provocations receives significant attention, with Diesen expressing concern that Russia may need to restore deterrence through limited strikes but questioning whether NATO would genuinely invoke Article 5. The discussion also covers Finland and Lithuania's decisions to allow nuclear weapons on their territory, which Diesen characterizes as abandoning successful neutrality policies that had provided decades of security. Throughout the conversation, Diesen expresses skepticism about Western media narratives on Ukrainian military success, citing prisoner exchange ratios and territorial losses as evidence of deteriorating Ukrainian positions.
Key takeaways
- Iran will maintain control of Strait of Hormuz and charge transit fees despite US offer to unfreeze $6 billion in assets, viewing strait control as primary war spoils
- US intelligence warned Poland that Russia may conduct limited military provocations including fake border incursions or infrastructure strikes to test NATO Article 5 resolve within months
- Putin stated Russia will take southern Ukrainian cities including Odessa and Nikolaev after completing Donbas conquest, potentially making Ukraine a landlocked rump state
- European nations have reportedly accepted Iran will charge Strait of Hormuz fees but request standardized rates rather than higher charges than Russia or China pay
- Glenn Diesen argues Ukrainian forces are severely depleted with troop shortages, lacking air defenses, and heavily fortified defensive lines now behind Russian positions
- Finland and Lithuania decisions to host nuclear weapons abandon decades of successful neutrality and place them on Russia's nuclear target list according to Dmitry Medvedev
- Poland-Ukraine relations deteriorating over Ukrainian celebration of Stepan Bandera, whose forces killed 100,000 Polish civilians during World War II