Money
Macro Analyst Predicts Two-Stage Yield Curve Move Under Warsh Regime
Forward Guidance
How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan
"I think you got the short end move first, and that's, I think, what we're kind of witnessing and have witnessed over the past, let's call it, week, two weeks. And then I think longer term, you know, out in the months to a couple quarters kind of time frame, is the long end kind of answering to supply."
Sheehan lays out a sequencing prediction where the short end of the yield curve moves first in response to hawkishness, followed months later by the long end rising due to supply pressures and reduced foreign buying. This bear flattener transitioning to a steepener represents his core macro thesis for how rates will evolve under the new Fed regime.
From this episode
Forward Guidance