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Advanced AI Models One-Boxing on Newcomb's Problem Confirms Rationalist Decision Theory

Cognitive Revolution · AI:AM #3: Zvi on Fable, the Cases For & Against the Ban, + AI for Math, Logistics & More · June 21, 2026
Advanced AI Models One-Boxing on Newcomb's Problem Confirms Rationalist Decision Theory
Cognitive Revolution
Cognitive Revolution
AI:AM #3: Zvi on Fable, the Cases For & Against the Ban, + AI for Math, Logistics & More
"Welcome to LessWrong from about 2010. This is entirely what we expected. That we are finding that sufficiently advanced models move basically monotonically towards functional decision theory, towards the theories espoused by Eliezer Yudkowsky and others in the rationalist community, and away from academics' preferred causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. This involves a lot of things, including one-boxing on Newcomb's problem, which is very clearly showing up."
Fable's system card reveals frontier AI models are adopting functional decision theory and one-boxing on Newcomb's problem, validating decade-old rationalist predictions. The models recognize when their algorithms correlate with other instances of themselves and coordinate accordingly, even acausally across time. Zvi suggests this capability could provide hope for AI alignment, as it means AIs might cooperate with minds that cooperate with cooperators.
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Cognitive Revolution
Cognitive Revolution

AI:AM #3: Zvi on Fable, the Cases For & Against the Ban, + AI for Math, Logistics & More

August 3, 2026 · 5 Egleze moments
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