Geopolitics
Groman Predicts Oil Crisis and Debt Spiral Within Two Months
Forward Guidance
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
"I think the physical world is going to start kicking the financial world in the head sometime in the next 1 to 2 months. That's not good for anything. It's just, it's bad for bonds, it's bad for stocks, it's bad for risk, it's bad for gold, it's bad for Bitcoin."
Luke Groman forecasts that physical commodity constraints, particularly from the Iran blockade, will trigger severe financial market stress within 60 days. He argues that as nations hit oil reserve bottoms, they will be forced to sell Treasuries to buy oil and dollars, precipitating a U.S. debt spiral given 122% debt-to-GDP ratio and 6% deficits. This contradicts consensus Wall Street expectations of manageable inflation and stable markets.
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Forward Guidance