Space Data Centers Will Be Cheaper Than Terrestrial in 2 to 3 Years
"We did a study with our partners at Google about 8 or 9 years ago looking at what are the costs of data centers on the ground, what are the costs that it would take to put them in space, and when might it make sense to do it non-terrestrially. And we figured out that when launch costs come down to about $200 to $300 a kilogram, it would be cheaper, just simply cheaper to put the data centers in space. Now we're about $1,000 a kilogram, just over that in right today. On the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect the launch costs come down there in 2 to 3 years."
About this episode
In this conversation hosted by Jason Calacanis at what appears to be an investor event, Cerebras Systems founder Andrew Feldman, Planet Labs CEO Will Marshall, and Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner discuss the recent IPO experiences of two of the most consequential newly public companies in AI and space technology. Feldman's Cerebras went public just three weeks prior after a decade of development, pricing at $185 per share with the stock opening at $320 and reaching a $50-60 billion market cap despite significant regulatory challenges including CFIUS scrutiny over UAE investors. Planet Labs, which went public via SPAC in 2021 at a $2 billion valuation, has since experienced a 10x stock appreciation to approximately $20 billion as investors recognized the strategic importance of daily Earth imaging capabilities. Marshall revealed that 60% of Planet's revenue now comes from military and security applications, higher than initially anticipated, and made the striking prediction that most computing infrastructure will move to space within a decade. He cited a joint Google study showing space-based data centers will become economically superior to terrestrial facilities within 2-3 years as SpaceX's Starship drives launch costs down from $1,000 per kilogram to $200-300 per kilogram. Feldman explained Cerebras' architectural innovation of building dinner-plate-sized chips with integrated memory, enabling processing speeds 15-18 times faster than NVIDIA GPUs for AI workloads. The conversation tackled the tension between LP demands for immediate liquidity and historical evidence that most value creation occurs post-IPO, with both companies serving as examples of successful venture capital plays in public markets. The panel advocated for earlier IPOs rather than staying private indefinitely, arguing that public market scrutiny and accountability drive better execution and allow broader investor participation in value creation that has historically accrued only to late-stage private investors.
Key takeaways
- Planet Labs CEO Will Marshall predicted most computing infrastructure will move to space within 10 years, citing economics that favor orbital data centers once launch costs drop to $200-300 per kilogram in 2-3 years.
- Cerebras Systems priced its IPO at $185 per share after twice raising the range, opened at $320, and achieved a $50-60 billion market cap despite CFIUS challenges over UAE investors.
- Planet Labs disclosed that 60% of its revenue now comes from military and security applications, higher than initially anticipated when the company launched its Earth imaging constellation.
- Andrew Feldman stated that historical data shows more money is made after IPO than before in both percentage and absolute terms, contradicting LP pressure for immediate post-IPO distributions.
- Planet Labs stock appreciated 10x from $5 to $50 per share in public markets as investors recognized the strategic value of daily global Earth imaging with AI analysis capabilities.
- Cerebras built dinner-plate-sized chips with integrated memory achieving 15-18 times faster AI processing than NVIDIA GPUs by fundamentally departing from GPU architecture.
- Brad Gerstner and the CEOs advocated for earlier IPOs rather than staying private indefinitely, arguing public market accountability drives better execution and democratizes value creation.