Geopolitics

IEA Calls Iran Conflict Biggest Disruption to Global Oil Market in History

Triggernometry · Life Update, Iran War and British Politics · May 27, 2026

Triggernometry

Life Update, Iran War and British Politics

"The IEA called this the biggest disruption to the global oil market in history. What's happened. And that's not just— it's not just oil, it's gas, it's fertilizer, it's all this stuff."

The hosts reported that the International Energy Agency has declared the Iran conflict the largest disruption to global oil markets in recorded history, with Brent crude prices up 60% year-over-year. The disruption extends beyond oil to natural gas and fertilizer, with Western nations currently drawing down strategic reserves. The economic impact is expected to worsen as supplies deplete, with one missed planting season already guaranteeing reduced food production next year.

About this episode

In this episode of Trigonometry, hosts Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster reunite after Kisin's nearly two-month paternity leave to discuss domestic and international crises. Foster has just published 'Uneducated,' a humorous but poignant book about his experiences as a supply teacher in Britain's failing education system. The conversation begins with personal reflections on fatherhood and masculinity before pivoting to the ongoing Iran conflict, which the hosts argue has become a strategic disaster for the West. Drawing on private conversations with Trump administration officials during their recent US trip, they reveal the decision to attack Iran was made instinctively without clear strategy, leading to what the IEA called the biggest disruption to global oil markets in history. Brent crude is up 60% year-over-year, and Western nations are drawing down strategic reserves while Iran maintains its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. The hosts note that only 27% of American voters support the war, and even Senator Ted Cruz is now warning Trump may be caving too early in negotiations. Despite Operation Epic Fury's military success, they conclude Iran has emerged strategically stronger, with America trapped between capitulation and dangerous escalation. The episode also covers UK domestic politics, where Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham amid collapsing poll numbers, and discusses the crisis in British education, including forcing illiterate seven-year-olds to take exams and the systemic failure to support special needs students.

Key takeaways

Trump administration officials privately told the hosts the Iran war decision was made instinctively without strategy, riding momentum from Venezuela.
The IEA declared the Iran conflict the biggest disruption to global oil markets in history, with Brent crude up 60% and food shortages expected next year.
The US diverted defensive interceptors from Taiwan to the Strait of Hormuz, potentially weakening deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific.
Only 27% of American voters support the Iran war, and Senator Ted Cruz now warns Trump may be caving too early in negotiations.
Foster revealed he accidentally called a disruptive 12-year-old student a dick out loud during class, illustrating extreme behavioral challenges in UK schools.
A 7-year-old named Terry was forced to take an exam despite being unable to read, putting his head on the desk and crying at the cruelty.
Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham as Reform and Restore parties split the right-wing vote in upcoming by-elections.