Episode overview

Real Rates Are Collapsing and Nobody Sees It — Gold's Biggest Setup Ever

The Peter Schiff Show · 15 May 2026 · 5 Egleze moments

What happened in this episode?

In this Friday Gold Market Wrap, Peter Schiff analyzed a week of dramatic precious metals volatility against a backdrop of surging inflation data that he argued validates his long-standing economic predictions. Despite gold falling 4% and silver dropping 10.5% for the week, Schiff framed the selloff as a buying opportunity driven by traders who misunderstand the bullish fundamental picture. The episode centered on newly released April inflation data showing producer prices surged 1.4% in a single month—the largest jump since 2022—while year-over-year PPI inflation accelerated from 4% to 6% in just 30 days. Consumer prices rose 0.6% monthly with year-over-year CPI climbing to 3.8%. Most striking were import and export price data: imports up 4.2% year-over-year and exports jumping 3.3% monthly to 8.8% annually. Schiff argued these figures prove foreign exporters are not absorbing U.S. tariff costs as the Trump administration claims, meaning Americans pay both higher import prices and tariffs. He emphasized the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.12%—a 19-year high—signals collapsing confidence in U.S. bonds and imploding real interest rates as inflation outpaces nominal yields. Schiff contended the Fed needs 200 basis points in rate hikes to catch up to inflation but will instead resort to money printing, making gold and silver the only safe havens. He criticized algorithmic traders for selling precious metals on rising nominal yields while missing that real rates are falling, creating what he called an ideal buying opportunity. Schiff also dismissed Trump's recent China summit as empty photo ops, predicted the AI and Bitcoin bubbles will burst, and urged listeners to accumulate physical metals and mining stocks through his firm Schiff Gold while prices remain suppressed.

What are the key points?

Producer prices surged 1.4% in April, nearly the Fed's entire 2% annual target in one month, with year-over-year PPI jumping from 4% to 6%.
Import prices rose 4.2% year-over-year proving Americans, not foreign exporters, are paying Trump's tariffs contrary to White House claims.
Export prices jumped 3.3% monthly and 8.8% annually, revealing pure U.S. domestic inflation pressures affecting both exported and domestically consumed goods.
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.12%, a 19-year high, signaling bond market loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal stability amid runaway inflation.
Schiff argued the Fed needs 200 basis point rate hikes to address inflation but is so far behind the curve that dramatic action is unlikely.
Real interest rates are collapsing as inflation far outpaces nominal yields, making gold and silver the only true safe havens despite short-term price drops.
Gold fell 4% and silver dropped 10.5% for the week, which Schiff framed as a buying opportunity created by algorithmic traders misreading inflation fundamentals.

Which topics are covered?

Money Politics

How is this page sourced?

Programme: The Peter Schiff Show
Published: 15 May 2026
Original episode: Open the original source ↗

Egleze verifies the speaker, source and timestamp for each linked moment. Unless a moment is explicitly marked independently verified, statements remain attributed claims by the named speaker rather than established facts.

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5 moments from this episode

Source-linked · editorially selected

Money

30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.12 Percent, Highest Level in 19 Years

at 5:20 · Attributed speaker claim

The 30-year yield closed at 5.12. That is over a 19-year high, maybe a 20-year high. In fact, there was a bond auction couple of days ago where the coupon on the 30-year Treasury was 5% for the first time in 19 years. Why is this more significant than what's happening in the 10-year? Because the 30-year is more sensitive to the problems that are making bonds go down, which is inflation.

Schiff noted the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.12%, its highest close in nearly two decades, signaling long-term inflation concerns among bond investors. He emphasized this metric is more significant than 10-year yields because the 30-year duration incorporates 20 additional years of inflation risk, revealing deeper market skepticism about U.S. fiscal stability.

Read this moment → Check original at 5:20 ↗

Money

Schiff Predicts Fed Must Hike 200 Basis Points to Combat Inflation

at 15:00 · Attributed speaker claim

The Fed is so far behind the curve, it can't even see the curve. It's not enough for the Fed to just not cut rates. They need to hike rates. And a quarter point, a half a point, that's too little too late. We need dramatic increases, maybe 200 basis points. The Fed would still be behind the curve, but that might be a decent start.

Peter Schiff argued that despite market expectations of Fed rate cuts, inflation data demands the opposite: dramatic rate hikes of 200 basis points or more. He stated the Fed is now so far behind the inflation curve that modest quarter-point adjustments would be insufficient to address surging producer and consumer prices.

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Money

Producer Prices Surge 1.4 Percent in Single Month, Biggest Jump Since 2022

at 16:05 · Attributed speaker claim

In April, producer prices surged 1.4% in one month. That's almost the entire 2% target in just one month. Year over year, 6% increase in producer prices. That's the biggest increase since sometime in 2022, but it's going up from here. And a month ago, just one month ago, the year-over-year rate of increase was only 4%. So a 50% increase in year-over-year inflation in a single month.

Schiff revealed April producer price data showing a 1.4% monthly surge, representing nearly the Fed's entire annual 2% inflation target achieved in 30 days. Year-over-year PPI inflation jumped from 4% to 6% in a single month, the largest increase since 2022, signaling consumer price pressures ahead.

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Politics

Import Prices Prove Trump Tariff Claims False, Up 4.2 Percent Year Over Year

at 21:05 · Attributed speaker claim

Import prices were up 1.9% on the month. Year over year, import prices now up 4.2% versus 2.1%. It proves again that Trump was lying when he said that foreigners would eat our tariffs. The fact that import prices are up by 4.2% means that foreigners aren't eating anything. Americans today are paying 4.2% more to import foreign products, and then on top of that, they are paying whatever's left of Trump's tariffs.

Schiff cited import price data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase as direct evidence that foreign exporters are not absorbing U.S. tariff costs as Trump claimed. Instead, Americans are paying both the increased import prices and the tariffs on top, contradicting White House assertions that tariffs don't burden U.S. consumers.

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Money

Export Prices Jump 3.3 Percent Monthly, Revealing Domestic Inflation Crisis

at 24:15 · Attributed speaker claim

Export prices in April surged by 3.3% in one month. Year-over-year export prices are now up 8.8%. The export prices are more important because that 100% reflects U.S. inflation. This 100% reflects U.S. inflation. Oil prices went up, they're gonna continue to go up, bond yields are gonna continue to go up.

Schiff highlighted April export price data showing a 3.3% monthly surge and 8.8% year-over-year increase, which he argued is a purer measure of U.S. domestic inflation than import prices. Since exported goods are also consumed domestically, these price increases signal broader cost pressures hitting American consumers regardless of trade dynamics.

Read this moment → Check original at 24:15 ↗