LEBANON ON BRINK OF CIVIL WAR AFTER U.S. DEAL LEAKS - w/ Laith Marouf

Host Mario Nawfal interviews Lebanese analyst Laith Marouf about Lebanon's rapidly deteriorating political and security situation, which Marouf characterizes as the closest the country has come to civil war since its decades-long conflict ended. The conversation centers on a leaked secret amendment to the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement that calls for Lebanon's military to disarm Hezbollah and dismantle all associated institutions. Marouf reveals that Lebanon's military chief of staff, General Rudolph Haykal, has refused direct presidential orders to carry out this mission and even declined to resign when told to do so. The analyst argues that Lebanese President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam were installed during a moment of weakness for the Axis of Resistance following Hassan Nasrallah's assassination and Damascus's fall, but that the regional power balance has since shifted dramatically in Iran's favor following what he calls Iran's victory in a 44-day war with the United States. Marouf contends the agreement is undeliverable because no Lebanese armed force will fight Hezbollah on behalf of the U.S. and Israel, suggesting the president and prime minister have signed their own political death warrants. He claims Israel has lost over 600 tanks and armored vehicles in three months of ground operations in southern Lebanon based on confirmed visual documentation. The discussion also covers broader regional dynamics, with Marouf arguing that Iran cannot abandon any component of the Axis of Resistance without facing strategic suicide, and that Israel's defeats extend beyond the military sphere to an irreparable ideological collapse in global public opinion. Nawfal questions whether Iran might have secretly agreed to compromises regarding Lebanon, though he acknowledges such theories hit logical walls given Iran's strategic interests. The conversation reveals deep uncertainty about the motivations of Lebanese leadership, with theories ranging from Western puppetry to naivety to operating under direct threats.

• Lebanon's military chief of staff General Rudolph Haykal has refused presidential orders to disarm Hezbollah and declined to resign when directed to do so by President Aoun
• A secret amendment to the Lebanese-Israeli agreement leaked by Israeli media calls for Lebanon's military to disarm Hezbollah and dismantle all associated social and political institutions
• Marouf claims Israel has lost over 600 tanks and armored vehicles in three months of southern Lebanon ground operations based on documented Hezbollah drone footage
• Lebanese President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam were installed during a moment of Axis of Resistance weakness but now face an impossible task as regional power dynamics have shifted
• Netanyahu allegedly leaked the secret agreement clauses after concluding Lebanon's leadership cannot deliver on promised terms, using the disclosure for domestic political gain ahead of Israeli elections
• Marouf argues Iran cannot strategically abandon any Axis of Resistance component including Hezbollah without facing isolation and increased vulnerability to internal color revolutions
• Israel's presence in southern Lebanon paradoxically serves Iranian interests by providing continued justification for Hezbollah's existence as a resistance force against occupation