Episode overview

OIL SURGES 4% AS US-IRAN STRIKES TARGET HORMUZ – w/ Economist Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal Interviews · 13 July 2026 · 20m · 3 Egleze moments

What happened in this episode?

In an emergency livestream analyzing rapidly escalating Middle East tensions, host Egleze speaks with energy analyst Philip Pilkington about the strategic vulnerabilities in global oil supply as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen enters direct conflict with Saudi Arabia. Pilkington makes the striking claim that Trump administration policies have been emboldened by what he characterizes as successful oil market price manipulation, with officials believing they can effectively "print oil" by keeping WTI prices suppressed even as crack spreads widen dramatically. The conversation reveals critical infrastructure details showing that Saudi Arabia and UAE oil rerouted around Hormuz through alternative pipelines must still transit the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controlled by Houthi forces, creating a second chokepoint that could remove 60% of remaining Middle Eastern oil from global markets if closed. As the discussion unfolds, breaking news interrupts repeatedly: Iran strikes multiple vessels in Hormuz, the IRGC broadcasts threats of deadly force over maritime radio to all approaching ships, Yemen launches three waves of attacks on Saudi airports, and Saudi Arabia potentially closes its airspace. Pilkington argues that Western strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure reveal a depleted strategic playbook, with tactics borrowed from the Ukraine-Russia conflict despite unclear effectiveness. The analyst warns that Iran has deliberately preserved escalation options throughout the conflict while the US has exhausted most available cards. Technical difficulties force the stream to end prematurely, with plans to continue analysis as the situation develops and oil prices begin climbing from recent lows near $70 to $77 per barrel.

What are the key points?

Energy analyst claims Trump administration convinced it can manipulate oil markets indefinitely, enabling aggressive tariff and foreign policy despite market warning signs
Iran could remove 60% of remaining Middle Eastern oil from global markets by closing Bab-el-Mandeb Strait through Houthi proxies or direct IRGC operations
IRGC broadcasts explicit threats over maritime radio to fire on any vessels approaching Strait of Hormuz after striking multiple ships
Yemen launches three waves of attacks on Saudi airports after Saudi strikes, potentially leading to Saudi airspace closure
Approximately 4 million barrels per day of Saudi oil rerouted around Hormuz still must pass through Houthi-controlled Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint
US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure reveal depleted strategic options with tactics borrowed from Ukraine conflict of unclear effectiveness
WTI crude rises to $77 from below $70 as diesel crack spreads exceed oil prices themselves, suggesting severe refining bottlenecks despite headline price suppression

Which topics are covered?

Energy & Climate Politics Geopolitics

How is this page sourced?

Programme: Mario Nawfal Interviews
Published: 13 July 2026
Duration: 20m
Original episode: Open the original source ↗

Egleze verifies the speaker, source and timestamp for each linked moment. Unless a moment is explicitly marked independently verified, statements remain attributed claims by the named speaker rather than established facts.

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3 moments from this episode

Source-linked · editorially selected

Energy & Climate

Energy analyst claims Trump's tariff chaos enabled by oil market price manipulation

at 0:46 · Attributed speaker claim

I think Trump is doing all this madness because he's been convinced that the oil markets are under control. I think that's actually what's going on. I think the oil market manipulation is becoming the main story in the whole thing, because why else do this, right? I think the administration's become convinced that they can actually print oil. It's kind of a remarkable, remarkable moment in human history, but they're going to find out very, very quickly that they can't print oil.

Energy analyst Philip Pilkington argues the Trump administration has been emboldened to pursue aggressive tariff and foreign policy because they believe oil prices are successfully being suppressed through market manipulation. He claims this apparent success has convinced officials they can control energy markets indefinitely, despite warning signs including widening crack spreads and refinery bottlenecks that are keeping pump prices high even as WTI appears stable.

Read this moment → Check original at 0:46 ↗

Geopolitics

IRGC broadcasts warning to all ships in Strait of Hormuz threatening deadly force

at 12:05 · Attributed speaker claim

Attention all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Oman Sea. This is IRGC Navy. I repeat, this is IRGC Navy. For your own safety and safety of your crew, do not approach the strait. You will be fired upon. Turn around immediately or face consequences.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps broadcast an explicit warning over maritime VHF radio channel 16 threatening to fire on any vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz. This follows Iran striking multiple vessels in the strait and formally closing the waterway, with Trump announcing a 20% fee on all non-Iranian ships attempting passage.

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Geopolitics

Iran could cripple Gulf oil exports by closing Bab-el-Mandeb Strait through Houthis

at 14:13 · Attributed speaker claim

If the Houthis close the strait, then about 60%, I think about 60% remaining oil coming out of the Middle Eastern countries will be shut off global markets. And that, I mean, we're already at endgame in my opinion, but that's bad. We're in it now. We're in it up to our eyeballs.

Analyst Philip Pilkington reveals that approximately 4 million barrels per day of Saudi oil rerouted around the Strait of Hormuz must still pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controlled by Houthis. He warns Iran could escalate by having the IRGC directly operate from Yemen to close this alternative route, which would remove 60% of remaining Middle Eastern oil from global markets now that plausible deniability is no longer needed.

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